Baseball Betting Strategies
There are four baseball betting strategies that you are going to want to employ if your serious about winning at baseball betting:
1. Picking Winners
2. Pricing
3. Bankroll management
4. Record keeping
Picking Winners: Almost everybody I know thought baseball betting was easy to conquer the first time they looked at the odds. This is of course because there is no point spread to beat so naturally their first reaction was to be biased and lean towards picking the better team. Needless to say, they were rudely introduced to the silent but deadly bankroll killer, THE MONEYLINE.
We all did it, me included. Hey, Roger Clemens is taking the hill against Glendon Rusch the biggest gas can in the league? -200? Lay it! Bam, Rusch has his best outing of the year and I'm down -2.00 units right out of the game. It doesn't take a mathematician to figure out that -2.00 means that we are now playing from behind and have to win 2 games just to break even.
The point of the story is picking winners is easy. Beating the odds is not. More times than not, the -200 favorite will win a game like that. The problem is every time the much favored pitcher doesn't, your put in a hole. Stick to low priced favorites or better yet only bet on underdogs. A strategy of betting only on underdogs gives you an opportunity to win 50% of the time or less and turn a profit as the moneyline becomes your friend, not your enemy. We'd also like to say that there is no substitute for hard work/good handicapping.
Pricing: When you go to the grocery store, you undoubtedly price shop and compare items. If you don't, your wasting money. Betting on bases is no different. If your looking at getting down on a game, you should compare prices at a handful of sportsbooks to make sure your getting the most bang for your buck. Not all sportsbooks are created equal. Prices can and will vary. We highly recommend that you have money deposited at "at least" three different places. We also recommend that these be dimeline sportsbooks to make "doubley" sure that your getting the best value. (Dimeline books are defined in the article, click it and read it but don't forget to come back here, we're not done with you yet!)
Bankroll Management: Nobody wants to hear it, very few practice it, yet not surprisingly very few win at sports betting long term. Take the hint as the sooner you apply it to your strategic approach the sooner you have a real chance at breaking even or winning. Just like life, you can't get paid on Friday and blow all your loot on Saturday. You have to stretch it out and make it last spending a little more during the good times (winning streaks) and a little less during the bad times (losing streaks.) With that being said, never deviate from betting no more than 2percent of your bankroll on any one game. Hmm, lets see, if your "roll" is USD 500 that means your maximum bet is a boring USD 10. Yes, we know, how BORING. Welcome to winning at gambling, a marathon not a sprint. If your not serious about winning ignore this advice. When you get tired of losing come back here and listen a little closer. You can put it together any way you want, but when it doesn't run correctly rest assured that you can come right back here, read the directions and make it right again. We all didn't listen in the beginning and we all lost for years before we even got a sniff of learning how to win. It's ok, don't be embarrassed. Just be glad that you figured it out AT SOME POINT as many never do!
Record Keeping: Uh oh, more BORING stuff. (And you thought this was all going to be exciting) Ya gotta do it fellas. Right down to the bare bones. Grab yourself a piece of paper. Start with "favorites" and keep a tally (record including win/loss and units won or lost) for each 10 cents of the moneyline. Do this for underdogs too. Example:
Favorites:
-100 to -109
-110 to -119
-120 to -129 and so on...
Also keep a win loss for overs/unders and runlines as well if you play them. The purpose of doing so is that after a while you will see what your strong points are and where your weaknesses lay. Once you've made a couple hundred plays, our recipe calls for a little more sugar and a lot less fat. Consider sticking to what works and eliminating what is NOT working for you.
We hope you've enjoyed this article on strategies that will help you win at baseball betting. If you've got any questions about gambling on baseball or any sport for that matter, feel free to click the contact us link below and drop us a line. We're usually pretty good about getting back to people within 48 hours or less. Good luck on the bases!
Copyright 2006-2008 Predictem.com
Baseball and Poker
"Pitching is grinding it out. Every batter is a new battle."...David Cone
When I was growing up, my brother was one of the best baseball players in my neighborhood. He had a great arm and was a star pitcher. When I taught my brother how to play Texas hold 'em almost two decades later, we often used a lot of baseball terminology and analogies when discussing strategy. My brother incorporated a lot of what he learned on the baseball diamond into creating his own playing style at the poker tables, because the pitcher versus batter situation has many similarities to playing heads up poker. Baseball and poker are situational games where decisions are based on the mitigating factors at hand.
Sometimes baseball betting strategy becomes a guessing game, much like poker. That puts you at a disadvantage when you have no idea what the other player is thinking. The best poker players in the world and Hall of Fame baseball pitchers have an added edge when they become totally unpredictable, yet know what you're thinking. Deception is a main component to a winning strategy. The best pitchers always seem know what to throw and when to throw it. They consistently induce their opponents to guess incorrectlly...by
throwing a changeup when a batter is expecting a fastball, away or blowing away an opponent with a fastball when the batter was looking for a curve. Conversely, hitters inflate their stats when a pitcher gets complacent and falls into a discernable pattern. They know what pitch is coming and take advantage.
Basic winning pitching strategy includes changing speeds and location. I incorporated that in my poker game. The key to deception is avoiding a specific betting pattern because the keenest opponents will pick up on that immediately. You always have to mix things up at the tables and shouldn't always play a hand the same way against the same player. That means occasionally raising with mediocre hands, limping with monsters, or flat calling bets that you would normally raise. All of your previous moves are purposely done to set up your opponent. Sometimes players can get a reputation based on their style of play. You have to use that to your advantage. For example, a pitcher might be known as a "first ball fastball" pitcher, which means his opponents are expecting a fast ball. The batter knows that the pitcher knows that the batter knows he likes to throw fastballs. That's why the pitcher has to mix things up from time to time and occasionally throw something off speed on the first pitch.
The equivalent in poker is when you have flop top set and set the flop with a two-thirds pot-size because you know that your opponent knows that's what you always do on big flush draws. One of the primary goals of poker is to induce your opponent to bet as much of their stack with an inferior hand. In order to do that, you have to convince them that they have the best hand or that you're bluffing. Veteran pitchers often pitch differently early in the game in order to set up hitters later on when it matters most. For a future hall of famer like Greg Maddux, his pitches are never the same speed and deliberately thrown in specific areas to either exploit his opponents' weaknesses or to set them up at a later time. That's why every hand you play at the tables is important, even if it's for a small pot early on in a cash game or a tournament. You need to take advantage of those opportunities to set up your opponents for a later time when you have the opportunity to take down a monster pot or eliminate your opponent.
Copyright Poker Player
Scugog Island casino to 'keep an eye' on sportsbook betting
SCUGOG ISLAND. Great Blue Heron Charity Casino officials are "keeping an eye" on the Province's idea of introducing sportsbooks to some Ontario casinos. According to Arnold Block, general manager at the Scugog Island gaming house, efforts by the Ontario government to bring betting on single games to the Province's casinos has caught the attention of Great Blue Heron officials.
But, he stressed during an interview last week, it's "very premature" to discuss such an addition to the Scugog Island gambling facility. First off, the federal government has to approve the necessary changes to the Criminal Code to allow wagers to be placed on individual games. Secondly, the Province has proposed sportsbook-style betting initially for only "border" casinos, such as those located in Windsor and Niagara Falls, as well as Casino Rama near Orillia, said Mr. Block. But, whatever the future holds for sportsbooks in Ontario, "we'll look at it, certainly with interest," said Mr. Block.
Las Vegas-style sportsbooks aren't currently permitted under the Criminal Code and the only sports betting allowed in Ontario is with Pro-Line, which requires bettors to select the outcomes of three or more sports contests. Having a sportsbook would allow a gambler betting with strategy on individual football, baseball, hockey, basketball, soccer and other games as opposed to the multiple "parlay" betting that exists under Pro-Line, the government-run lottery.
"At this point, it's the federal Criminal Code of Canada that prohibits single sports betting. The code has to be changed," said Anne Dunderdale, the media relations coordinator for the ministry of energy and infrastructure, which is responsible for the Ontario Lottery and Gaming. Following that, we'll look at it as part of our responsible gaming strategy," she said. "The minister is hopeful the federal government will be amending the Criminal Code."
George Smitherman was recently appointed the minister, having been shifted from the health ministry last month. His predecessor, David Caplan, had written to the federal government asking for changes to allow sportsbooks. Mr. Caplan was shifted to health in the shuffle.
"The current minister (Mr. Smitherman) is hopeful, but he hasn't asked them to change it," Ms. Dunderdale said. "The federal government is considering making changes. We've indicated we're open to considering it."
The proposal, however, has Durham MPP John O'Toole shaking his head in protest.
"I'm not a big supporter of gaming and games of chance," said the veteran Conservative MPP. "It's a tragedy when the Province of Ontario sees their revenue from casinos falling and they have to go to the federal government to change the Criminal Code to allow betting in the casinos so they can increase their revenue because of the sliding economy."
The idea of introducing single-game wagering, continued Mr. O'Toole, is "a very poor solution in the long-term to fund public services on gambling."
A published report noted the Province is especially interested in sportsbooks at the two Niagara Falls casinos, the new Caesars Windsor facility and the existing Casino Rama. The Niagara and Windsor facilities would attract gamblers from the United States, where sportsbooks are only allowed in Las Vegas. Asked if sportsbook gambling would be allowed at all casinos in Ontario, Ms. Dunderdale said, "I can't speculate on specific sites. Nobody knows. The federal code has to change and we'll look at how to implement it."
Currently, Canadian gamblers skirt the law by betting with on-line sportsbooks located in the Caribbean, the United Kingdom, and a slew of other countries. As well, underground betting brings in untold millions for illegal operators at home.
Copyright 1995- Metroland Media Group Ltd
Picking winners an inexact science
Vallejo native Michael Lazarus took his seat in the bleachers at the Solano County Fairgrounds on Sunday afternoon armed with programs, tip sheets and racing guides, using every tool he could find to maximize his profits. Lazarus was joined by hundreds of spectators, hoping to enjoy a day at the track and hopefully add a little width to their wallets by picking out which horses would triumph in the day's 11 races.
"I'm looking for every advantage I can get," Lazarus said. "Everyone has a different system. Some pick by names or numbers or colors, but I'm trying to use a little strategy and give myself the best chance to win."
From simple terms like win, place and show to the complicated parlays, trifectas and exactas, betting options and methods vary in complexity, but every bettor is looking to pick out which horses will be first across the line. For Lazarus, who claims to have betting on events ranging from the Super Bowl to Little League baseball, a major aspect of the strategy is identifying which jockeys and trainers have enjoyed the most success on the Summer Fair Circuit.
"You're drawn to names like (Russell) Baze and (Frank) Alvarado because they're the leading jockey winners, so you know they get a lot of good mounts," Lazarus said. "With trainers, you can expect guys like Steve Miyadi and Jerry Hollendorfer to have their horses ready to compete."
Pointing to a winning percentage of 70 percent in the fair circuit, Lazarus outlined a plan to bet on Alvarado in each of the eight races he entered Sunday. It backfired horribly. A pair of second-place finishes - riding Jolympio in the sixth race and Amazin Blue in the tenth race was the closest Alvarado came to the winner's circle.
Fairfield native Randy Hamilton took a different approach, putting less stock in victory totals while relying on his own intuition to glean which horses were going to put together successful rides.
Hamilton has more than three decades of experience riding horses, working on ranches in Montana, Idaho and Oklahoma. Rather than relying on the current odds or handicapper selections, he spent most of the afternoon near the stables, taking a close look at the horses before they took the track.
"You can tell if a horse is fast as soon as they bust out of the gate, just by seeing their stride and watching how they handle the rider," Hamilton said. "I'm trying to see that stride before they make it to the gate, looking at their structure and fitness, trying to get as many clues as I can about how fast the horse will be."
The method seemed to pay off in the fourth race. Cafe Lindo entered the race as a 6-5 favorite, but Hamilton pointed out that the horse was limping slightly and seemed to be favoring its left hind leg. Despite his concerns, Cafe Lindo controlled most of the race and looked poised for an easy victory until Ochoco Dam took control over the last two furlongs and pulled off the upset.
"In the end you could analyze all the factors, weigh all the odds, and still have an underdog surprise everybody by coming out of nowhere down the stretch," Hamilton said. "That's why they call it gambling."
Copyright 2008 Vallejo Times Herald
Leonard: Making money on go-against pitchers
One thing about examining starting pitchers in baseball is that sometimes the angle is not which pitcher to back, but which one to wager against. You might call this reverse psychology. All time you hear about great pitching matchups, but what about bad pitching duels? They can be just as interesting and just as profitable.
For instance, I used this baseball betting strategy of last season when the Indians traveled out to Oakland. At that time, Oakland had brought up rookie lefty Dallas Braden for his third career start and had a 5.23 ERA those games, but this was his first major league action of the year. He got a tough test as the Indians offense, unlike this season, was crushing the ball and averaging 5.5 runs per game. They were one of the top teams in the league in batting, runs and OBP. By contrast, Oakland averaged just 3.3 runs at home and faced a hot pitcher in Fausto Carmona. The Indians got the money in a 6-3 win as Carmona and his hard sinker were strong for seven innings.
As you can see, I liked backing Carmona, an unsung righty at the time who had been very strong, just as much as I liked going against a kid pitcher making his season debut. There are many times during a baseball season that I look to go-against certain pitchers. Another thing to keep in mind is that bad pitchers aren't going to go very long in a game, so check long and middle relievers to see who is healthy and rested. That happened last week when Pedro Martinez came off the shelf and pitched poorly, getting whacked around by a bad San Diego lineup. I recall another game from a recent season when the same analysis applied. It was a typical game with a well-known pitcher against a bad one, veterans John Smoltz against Jose Lima.
While Smoltz was the bigger name and still an ace, I wasn't wagering on the Braves solely because of him. In my analysis of the contest I wrote, "The real reason I favor the Braves is that Jose Lima is back in the big leagues, this time with the New York Mets. Lima has made more off of one good season than anyone in the history of baseball …We have no idea why the Mets decided to use him but we will take advantage while we can because he will be either out of baseball or down in the minors soon enough." Some might find my criticism of Lima a bit harsh, but I couldn't resist. I wasn't overdoing it either, as he has been a very poor pitcher the last few years. After all, the Kansas City Royals couldn't wait to get rid of him. I made fun of Lima beforehand, then laughed all the way to the bank as the Braves crushed the Mets, 13-3.
There are some teams that have been hurt by injuries recently, ones to keep an eye on who will be using weak or little-known pitchers. Keep track of teams that are desperately searching for starters, either because of injuries or ineffective veterans. All of which could mean more go-against spots.
Copyright 1995-2008 SportsDirect Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Jeff Haney shows why baseball bettors should pay attention to pitchers' tendencies and how they match up with ballparks
A popular theory among baseball bettors strategies suggests backing starting pitchers who are known as ground-ball specialists when they are pitching in ballparks that typically yield a lot of home runs. Pitchers who are more effective in recording outs via fly balls, according to the theory, should be bet when they are starting in stadiums that do not give up many home runs. The reasoning behind the strategy is that ground-ball pitchers are less likely to be hurt by a home run ballpark, and solid fly-ball pitchers should be even more effective in stadiums that don't have a tendency to yield homers.
Both categories have been profitable this baseball season, although the ground-ball pitchers have been more consistent in living up to their end of the bargain. Bettors can fine-tune the strategy in any number of ways, basing their wagers on variables such as day games versus night games at various stadiums, how they expect pitchers to perform at home versus on the road, and so on. But for the purposes of this rather basic example, we followed 12 pitchers who have established themselves as ground-ball specialists, and another 12 known as fly-ball pitchers.
We considered six stadiums that have displayed a bias toward allowing more home runs than usual in the past couple of seasons (the home ballparks of the White Sox, Rockies, Phillies, Reds, Blue Jays and Orioles) and six that have shown a bias against allowing home runs (Cardinals, Giants, Royals, Pirates, Padres, Twins). If any of the 12 ground-ball pitchers was starting in a home run ballpark, it meant a hypothetical bet on him. If any of the 12 fly-ball pitchers was starting in a ballpark that doesn't allow a lot of homers, it meant a bet on him. No other factors were considered. The first category, ground-ball pitchers in home run ballparks, has triggered 36 wagers this season, with 22 winners and 14 losers. Of the 22 winners, nine were on underdogs or games that went off at pick 'em, and 13 were on favorites.
Based on a flat wager of USD 100 per play, regardless of the odds in the game, the 36 wagers generated a hypothetical profit of USD 573 using a consensus Las Vegas betting line on each game. The heaviest favorite was Roy Halladay (5-1 in six plays) at minus-200, and the biggest underdog who cashed was Daniel Cabrera (4-1) at plus-130. The other pitchers who yielded multiple plays according to the system were A.J. Burnett (2-4), Aaron Cook (4-1), Dustin McGowan (3-3) and Brandon Webb (2-0). Ground-all pitchers with single decisions were Felix Hernandez, Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Roy Oswalt and Chien-Ming Wang. The second category, fly-ball pitchers in nonhomer ballparks, has triggered 40 wagers in 2008, with 20 winning bets and 20 losers. Of the 20 winners, 13 were on underdogs or pick 'em games, and seven were on favorites.
Based on a flat wager of USD 100 per play, the 40 wagers generated a hypothetical profit of USD 99, again using a consensus Las Vegas line. The bulk of the profit came from Livan Hernandez, a veteran fly-ball pitcher who joined the Minnesota Twins this season and has rewarded bettors backing him in the Metrodome. The Twins have won six of Hernandez's seven home starts and both of his starts in Kansas City. Each victory came as an underdog or in a pick 'em game. The heaviest favorites were Chris Young (2-3) at minus-185 and Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-0) at minus-160.
The other fly-ball pitchers who yielded multiple plays were Bronson Arroyo (2-1), Paul Byrd (0-2), Matt Cain (3-7), Ted Lilly (2-2) and Oliver Perez (0-2), with single decisions recorded by Jon Garland, John Maine, Johan Santana and Tim Wakefield. In upcoming games that fit the strategy, Burnett starts for the Blue Jays against the White Sox in Toronto today; Halladay starts for the Blue Jays Saturday; and Cain starts for the Giants against Oakland in San Francisco Saturday.
Las Vegas Sun, 2008, All Rights Reserved
MLB Baseball Betting Odds - Braves vs. Cubs
The Chicago Cubs are looking for their ninth straight MLB betting victory on Tuesday night as they send pitcher Ted Lilly to the mound. The Cubs proved in their last sports betting series versus the Los Angeles Dodgers, where they split two out of four, that they might just be the best team in the National League this year. One thing is for sure, they're definitely the team to watch, from a baseball betting strategy, when they play at home. This team is very difficult to beat. Ted Lilly, although his numbers aren't all that impressive, has done well when he takes the mound at Wrigley Field. His ERA is a whopping 5.23 but his record of 5 and 5 is plenty good enough with home-field advantage to make him a good MLB betting play in this game.
The Braves counter with old man Tom Glavine. Glavine used to dominate teams, but lately, because of age mostly, he has been, at best a serviceable online wagering pitcher. In order for online betting fans to take him seriously, the perfect online bet has to present itself. Glavine has an ERA of 4.47 and a record of 2 and 2 on the season. The trends say that Glavine doesn't have a good outing at all. He's facing perhaps the best team in the National League, on the road where he struggles, against a team that starts a pitcher who does very well at home.
That spells trouble with a capital "T" for both Tom Glavine and the Atlanta Braves. The Chicago Cubs should hold serve at home. Because of the trends, my money is going on the online bet that has Ted Lilly, for the Chicago Cubs, at above even money. That would be the BetUS run-line at -1 and a half runs positive 135. I'll be making an online wager on Ted Lilly to beat Tom Glavine by at least two runs in this game.
Copyright 1994-2008 BetUS.com
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